My 2016 Presidential Election Predictions (National)

The first Presidential debate of the 2016 election is tonight, so it is time to make my predictions:

* There is at least a 95% chance that the next President of the United States will be (from left to right politically), with relative percentage chance of winning approximately as shown:

Bernie Sanders (D) (20%)
Hillary Clinton (D) (40%)
Mike Huckabee (R) (2%)
Jeb Bush (R) (22%)
Donald Trump (R or I) – Trump could run as an independent if his partisan run fails (6%)
Scott Walker (R) (9%)

A crash in support for one of these candidates in favor of their same party competitors by the end of February, is more likely than a surge in support for someone not on the list at this point that brings that candidate into the viable candidacy odds of prevailing.

* In the Democratic primary, Clinton has about a 65% chance of winning the nomination and Sanders has about a 34% chance.  The odds of anyone else winning the Democratic primary is about 1%.  The most likely scenario in which that would happen would be the premature death of Hillary Clinton very early in primary season or before the first primary.

* In the Republican primary, Jeb Bush is most likely to win (55%), followed by Scott Walker (23%), followed by Donald Trump (14%), followed by Mike Huckabee (5%) (with percentage chance of winning shown).  The combined odds of any of the other 12 GOP Presidential candidates winning the Republican primary is about 2% (Rubio is the front runner of the also rans, but not decisively enough to give him a 1% chance of winning the nomination).  The odds of someone not currently in the GOP race winning the Republican race is about 1%.

* The Democratic primary will probably be resolved by late March or sometime in April in 2016.

* The Republican primary will still have at least three serious candidates left at the end of May 2016, and won’t be resolved to a near certain outcome until June or July, 2016.

* There is a roughly 1% chance that whoever becomes the major party nominee and wins the election, that a Vice Presidential candidate not on this list will end up being President.

* All other possibilities combined for the next President of the United States have a less than 0.5% probability.  This includes third party candidates other than Donald Trump (if he drops out of the GOP primary but runs anyway), and succession to someone other than the person nominated as President or as Vice-President, due to two post-nomination, pre-inauguration deaths, and the possibility of a coup or significantly postponed election.

* There is roughly a 37% chance of a Clinton v. Bush race in 2016, which is the most likely possibility.  There is a roughly 18% chance of a Sanders v. Bush race in 2016.  There is roughly a 17% chance of a Clinton v. Walker race in 2016.  There is roughly an 8% chance of a Sanders v. Walker race in 2016.  There is a roughly 8 out of 9 chance that there will be one of these four possible general election line ups in the 2016 Presidential election.

* In a Clinton v. Bush race, the odds of Clinton winning are about 60%.
* In a Sanders v. Bush race, the odds of Sanders winning are about 55%.
* In a Clinton v. Walker race, the odds of Clinton winning are about 65%.
* In a Sanders v. Walker race, the odds of Sanders winning are about 60%.
* In a Clinton v. Trump race, the odds of Clinton winning are about 50%.
* In a Sanders v. Trump race, the odds of Sanders winning are about 55%.
* In a Clinton v. Huckabee race, the odds of Clinton winning are about 60%.
* In a Sanders v. Huckabee race, the odds of Sanders winning are about 60%.
* In a three way race involving Clinton (D) v. Walker (R) or Bush (R) v. Trump (I), the odds of Clinton winning are about 75%
* In a three way race involving Sanders (D) v. Walker (R) or Bush (R) v. Trump (I), the odds of Sanders winning are about 70%.
* The overall odds of a Democrat winning the Presidential election are about 60%.

* If Bernie Sanders wins the election, the odds that the Democrats will also control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate is about 65%.  If Clinton wins the election, the odds that the Democrats will also control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate is about 55%.
* If a Republican wins the election, the odds that Republicans will also control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate is about 65% for a candidate other than Scott Walker and about 70% for Scott Walker.

* The odds of a Democrat winning the Presidency and controlling majorities in both houses of Congress is about 35%.

* The odds of a Republican winning the Presidency and controlling majorities in both houses of Congress is about 26%.

* The odds of a Democrat winning the Presidency but not controlling majorities in both houses of Congress is about 24%.

* The odds of a Republican winning the Presidency but not controlling majorities in both houses of Congress is about 15%.

* Thus, there is a roughly 50% chance that we will get at least another two years of divided government.

* There is roughly at 8% chance of a race too close to call on election night.  This is more likely if Sanders is the Democratic nominee and is more likely if Scott Walker is not the GOP nominee.  If it is a close race, there is probably at least a 25% chance that Colorado will be one of the make or break states that is still in play on election night.

* I am not making state by state general election predictions at this point, although the general election favorites in each state are pretty obvious for at least 35 or so states.

* State by state primary/caucus results are too close to call, but will be dominated by the front runners listed above.

* The least predictable outcome is the name of the Vice Presidential nominee, which I will not attempt to predict.  This will most likely be a Presidential candidate of the same party who does not win the nomination, but the odds of someone chosen from that group are only about 55%.  The odds that a Vice Presidential candidate will be announced before the national convention is about 55% in each of the respective major parties.

All percentages in this post are rounded to the nearest percentage point so as not to convey an impression of spurious accuracy, at the cost that some totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding errors.

OFF TOPIC:  Windows 10 has updated once already in a decent sized update, even though it is brand shiny and new.  Not sure what to make of that.  No problems with Windows 10 so far (and it is at least better than my old Windows 8).

from Wash Park Prophet http://ift.tt/1IQk2V6
via Denver News

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